Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c562cfde39f45e6f1608302a2d9ab6f098a62d4d337de42278d2091c410e60a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 47c | 3,470$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 2c | 3,070$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 8c | 1,516$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…b51fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,132$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…3f18backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 23c | 735$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3574backed No | 75c | 700$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 7c | 647.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 59c | 480.38$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 5c | 461.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 17c | 387.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 17c | 378.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 61c | 296.29$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 14c | 235.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 17c | 224.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed No | 40c | 215.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…902fbacked Yes | 10c | 155.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…adaabacked No | 64c | 150.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…3163backed No | 19c | 145$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 72c | 137.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…a5f4backed Yes | 36c | 137.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…067cbacked Yes | 15c | 130.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 70c | 110.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 34c | 108.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 79c | 105$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…e550backed Yes | 20c | 101.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…30abbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…9979backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2351…f059backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 79.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…e4dbbacked No | 23c | 65.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…2b9dbacked Yes | 31c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…61b8backed No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…7843backed No | 72c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…2ad7backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…3cdfbacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…3513backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?this page
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.