Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8367dfbdbe95f261180c8009f5d2af16ca384372a8d54c13d225a4d13fa87649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 3c | 19,018$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 2c | 4,009$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 6c | 1,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…19eebacked No | 7c | 1,006$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…f334backed No | 7c | 976.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…da79backed No | 7c | 976.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 976$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…fef7backed No | 6c | 967$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…3569backed No | 7c | 967$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…d96bbacked No | 6c | 956$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…6487backed No | 6c | 956$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…ee93backed No | 6c | 910$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb5…2f1ebacked No | 7c | 908$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…1fb3backed No | 6c | 905$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…7e5bbacked No | 7c | 904$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…2f9ebacked No | 7c | 904$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…7b18backed No | 7c | 902$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…67b5backed No | 7c | 899$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…0443backed No | 6c | 897$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…74b3backed No | 6c | 893.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…149bbacked No | 6c | 275.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 9c | 251.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…e550backed No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…a262backed No | 11c | 154.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 11c | 140.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…b1babacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 24c | 85.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 53c | 57.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…b556backed Yes | 79c | 53.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…3163backed Yes | 70c | 38.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?this page
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.