TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Raiders vs. Texans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raidersof Raiders, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$570,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$565,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $570,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Raiders21c127,861$26,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,508.449554.7%52 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Raiders49c64,532$31,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,933.073154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Texans45c57,941$26,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,073.574360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Raiders21c56,727$11,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,822.467552%39 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Raiders24c30,441$7,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,232.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+49.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Texans51c20,000$10,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,172.618747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Raiders24c12,734$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,668.6325956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Raiders25c9,000$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,747.6514438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Raiders6c7,216$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,783.048146.9%38 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Texans49c7,015$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.3739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Texans50c6,627$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.314850%74 W · 74 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Texans62c5,606$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.235356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Raiders52c4,883$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.619145.1%41 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Texans46c4,803$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.5237350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Texans75c3,800$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85033328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texans60c3,478$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.1522550.7%114 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Raiders52c3,371$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.774542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb56d…d621backed Texans46c3,261$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Texans78c3,250$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.5757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raiders10c3,040$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.5527348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0385…acafbacked Texans50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Raiders38c2,672$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.761450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…ad70backed Raiders54c2,401$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Texans80c2,386$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.972729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Raiders16c2,376$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.571163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6190…5d90backed Texans62c2,259$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Raiders26c1,963$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.1812550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Raiders32c1,831$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.779853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Texans48c1,821$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.542944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Texans48c1,776$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.4834349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Texans70c1,768$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.345066%33 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Raiders20c1,691$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.553040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Texans49c1,625$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.414148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5e…f447backed Raiders10c1,624$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+905.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e55…bad0backed Texans79c1,575$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Texans45c1,532$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.491172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+47.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Texans45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Texans49c1,312$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe176…a74ebacked Raiders55c1,302$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Texans49c1,185$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.4510455.8%58 W · 46 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Raiders52c1,170$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.462441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Texans54c1,099$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.8911958%69 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Raiders26c1,096$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.642572%18 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Raiders55c959.89$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.73661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Raiders43c929.82$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.764052.5%21 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Texans33c914.82$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.461457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b87…dffdbacked Texans75c914.38$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Raiders55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.091450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Texans48c872$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Texans63c848.35$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.7610858.3%63 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Raiders28c808.82$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.29633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Texans69c762.6$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.285244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x295f…bb32backed Raiders54c758.95$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Texans53c755.55$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Texans48c717.72$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Texans78c716.62$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.963655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+52.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Texans45c652.56$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6535848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Texans48c616$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Texans49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa7…3767backed Texans49c551.02$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Texans50c501.08$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.542356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Raiders14c500$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.512147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf26c…ebe5backed Raiders20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Raiders6c480$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.2475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+488.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Texans46c470$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.24744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Raiders6c465.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.72560%3 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.49per pick11cpaid+538.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Texans45c454.54$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.541947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c5…0322backed Raiders55c446.42$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Texans50c442.3$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1717648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Texans47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Texans48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Raiders50c413.62$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.863857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Raiders53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Texans48c392.08$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.22650%13 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0926…6721backed Raiders50c372.38$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.195100%5 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+171.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Raiders25c365.4$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.373050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Texans48c361$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0713756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Texans76c345.04$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3831056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Raiders34c340.37$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.881952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bc…42c1backed Texans50c302.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-73.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Texans77c302$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.541540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Texans4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.386238.7%24 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Texans50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe75…5af2backed Raiders47c293.44$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1b…85c8backed Raiders39c289.44$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.316955.1%38 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a69…8caabacked Texans7c282.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa177…4b0dbacked Raiders11c272.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.731250%6 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+117%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0dae…72febacked Texans46c265.96$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2b…7825backed Texans76c263.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a34…92cdbacked Raiders23c256.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Texans46c246.65$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.461546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Texans8c237.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Raiders24c225.68$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.711118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Raiders52c223.7$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.382437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Texans46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8718…ff8cbacked Raiders46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Raiders80c217.29$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3731543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Texans47c206.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked Raiders25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Texans79c199.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.993447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.