TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: HOU (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
LVof HOU, LV
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,477 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked LV57c799.42$456 inWon+$343.8477052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5871…0defbacked HOU41c397.47$162 inLost-$161.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked LV31c394.5$124 inWon+$270.492254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked HOU57c351.84$200 inLost-$200.510452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked LV43c351.84$151 inWon+$200.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed HOU61c344.57$212 inLost-$211.7422550.7%114 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed HOU43c218.86$94 inLost-$94.1114850%74 W · 74 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed HOU40c50$20 inLost-$208156.8%46 W · 35 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed LV60c45$27 inWon+$1811358.4%66 W · 47 L+10.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked HOU43c23.93$10 inLost-$10.2913339.8%53 W · 80 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.