NFL · resolved market
Spread: LV (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x913a4d175d5506a3db201d6a17b64e2c9f108beb4ddf4071aa455d20a7fcf921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LVof LV, HOU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked LV | 49c | 41,413$20,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,141.39 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed HOU | 51c | 38,919$19,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,848.45 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed LV | 49c | 26,013$12,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,266.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked HOU | 50c | 15,590$7,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,795 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked LV | 50c | 12,783$6,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,411.85 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked HOU | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed HOU | 51c | 9,822$5,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,005.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed HOU | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked LV | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed HOU | 51c | 3,505$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked LV | 49c | 2,817$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.38 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed LV | 49c | 2,478$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.78 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…11a9backed HOU | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed LV | 49c | 1,177$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.41 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed HOU | 52c | 1,145$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed HOU | 51c | 1,065$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…19b8backed LV | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed HOU | 50c | 682.24$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.44 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked LV | 50c | 428$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed HOU | 57c | 300.07$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed HOU | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83a…e7febacked HOU | 55c | 288.5$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed HOU | 55c | 285.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed HOU | 55c | 143.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd252…4058backed HOU | 55c | 142$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…6016backed HOU | 54c | 141.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed LV | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed HOU | 51c | 90.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked LV | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…8cdbbacked LV | 27c | 73.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +276.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked HOU | 79c | 72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed LV | 50c | 55.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked LV | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed HOU | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed LV | 50c | 50.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed HOU | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed LV | 50c | 48.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed HOU | 51c | 42.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed LV | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed LV | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked LV | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked HOU | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed HOU | 52c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed HOU | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed HOU | 52c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked HOU | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked LV | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LV (-1.5)this page
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 37.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 38.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 39.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 40.5Over won
- Raiders vs. TexansRaiders won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: HOU (-1.5)LV won
- Spread: HOU (-2.5)LV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.