NFL · resolved market
LV vs. HOU: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c38f9d2f96697dbc750ce7bf0880b522ae403e906f2e1545ac337e97753fcb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 48c | 765$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 52c | 765$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 51c | 646$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 49c | 636$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 51c | 291.04$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.61 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 49c | 289$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 288.08$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 118.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 54c | 104.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 47c | 73.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 33.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…6a3abacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 39.5this page
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 37.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 38.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 40.5Over won
- Raiders vs. TexansRaiders won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: HOU (-1.5)LV won
- Spread: HOU (-2.5)LV won
- Spread: LV (-1.5)LV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.