NFL · resolved market
LV vs. HOU: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a5e1f7ef96de4bbd0ef99babeb8135118a39109fb1c7ca54882b78979e5d07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 54c | 5,005$2,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.42 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 4,853$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.35 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 2,060$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.39 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 50c | 1,881$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.34 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 1,692$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 1,410$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.21 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 1,106$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.64 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 933$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.93 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 930$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 53c | 925.25$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.87 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 48c | 830.21$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.58 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 53c | 725$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 50c | 653.96$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 512$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…9bd5backed Under | 50c | 478.27$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 50c | 324$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 291.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 289.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.41 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 52c | 197$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 49c | 160.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 51c | 156.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Under | 55c | 149.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 51c | 139$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…9d95backed Under | 51c | 133.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 99.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 48c | 94.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…3fa6backed Over | 48c | 94.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 55c | 82.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 79.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 52c | 74.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Under | 54c | 67.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 41.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…006ebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 53c | 32.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 49c | 29.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Over | 52c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 38.5this page
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 37.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 39.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 40.5Over won
- Raiders vs. TexansRaiders won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: HOU (-1.5)LV won
- Spread: HOU (-2.5)LV won
- Spread: LV (-1.5)LV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.