NFL · resolved market
LV vs. HOU: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e6ba54427b7a0e6c707dff4c1aae889f1ef1c07dded1b68d80af7d59757c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 2,477$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,330$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.02 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Under | 44c | 1,500$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 54c | 649$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 416.28$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.51 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Under | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 61c | 268$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 46c | 215.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 43c | 214.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 44c | 211$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 166$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 58c | 99.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 54c | 98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 52c | 92.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 54c | 86.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 53c | 84.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 42c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 35c | 79.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 53c | 72.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 48c | 65.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 56c | 61.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 58c | 44.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 58c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 39.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 43c | 36.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 57c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 56c | 19.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 69c | 16.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 40.5this page
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 37.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 38.5Over won
- LV vs. HOU: O/U 39.5Over won
- Raiders vs. TexansRaiders won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Raiders vs. Texans: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Spread: HOU (-1.5)LV won
- Spread: HOU (-2.5)LV won
- Spread: LV (-1.5)LV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.