Earnings · resolved market
Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c65028ff841efda5a53f66258bdd4c8406e5cb2319639621935bd335cb89cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,661 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24bc…bd1bbacked No | 12c | 1,441$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 11c | 1,026$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 10c | 1,012$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 16c | 482.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 14c | 330$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 17c | 302.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 80c | 297$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…ca12backed No | 23c | 292.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…7c12backed Yes | 77c | 292.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…954abacked No | 26c | 219.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 14c | 179.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 11c | 151.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912b…9156backed No | 15c | 117.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 10c | 107.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 16c | 83.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.