Earnings · resolved market
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc1103e80d5269c4bce9d283d917e1b24141c725e84dddfcf45ad54e5f01ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 969.72$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…8a17backed No | 26c | 819.06$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked No | 23c | 591.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 79c | 483.5$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 75c | 430$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 68c | 377.39$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 75c | 124$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 14c | 72.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 77c | 72.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 40.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…4f7cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.