World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074f9d3f0b9ebe0f53209af2b30c68ebb3093aa47983c4143b7bbbe7588842aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4619…3f91backed No | 72c | 1,210$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 32c | 660.19$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.51 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…501cbacked Yes | 44c | 640.87$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 17c | 411$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 53c | 376.35$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 47c | 317$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 53c | 317$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 13c | 290.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…3921backed No | 23c | 284.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 270.14$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…2a24backed Yes | 35c | 260$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…61e5backed Yes | 13c | 221.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…505abacked Yes | 44c | 210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…a3aabacked Yes | 50c | 198.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 183.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 161.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 11c | 148.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…ef3cbacked No | 34c | 146$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…14aebacked Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…34e6backed Yes | 38c | 113.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78af…819abacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…d768backed No | 50c | 73.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaeb…b5fbbacked Yes | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +159%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed Yes | 37c | 59.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 47c | 54.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…8dc0backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…e60fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…9c3cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…020fbacked Yes | 52c | 46.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…f0a5backed No | 55c | 46.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…59e8backed No | 36c | 29.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 47c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 47c | 22.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…b411backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…eba2backed No | 56c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win 250 or more seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 100 and 149 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.