World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 100 and 149 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7057d4d58c63e935ee24ffcdbef6bb0221df8baef15c4c76e7bbcb632d5434b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 21c | 618$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…9946backed Yes | 40c | 516.66$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…a3aabacked Yes | 28c | 436.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 79c | 356$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 279.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 21c | 261.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…2a24backed Yes | 37c | 248.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 79c | 244$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 125.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 107.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 102.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 86.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…c055backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490d…d807backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 100 and 149 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win 250 or more seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.