World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win fewer than 40 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7069a49fd9dd31f8d1bd95f66f3de8b91574729ba69bb1d6be5733df45ccea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dd5…b038backed Yes | 6c | 518$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 68c | 417.35$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed Yes | 32c | 324.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 315.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…7b54backed Yes | 7c | 315$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 5c | 244.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 74c | 237.75$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…df9abacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…2a24backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 127.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 126.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…2a21backed No | 64c | 104.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 101.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…5088backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490d…d807backed Yes | 23c | 92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 85.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 67.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…9308backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 45.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 78c | 31.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win fewer than 40 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win 160 or more seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 100 and 129 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 130 and 159 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 40 and 69 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 70 and 99 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.