World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb0766e8e78d72f4fefbc7d672695627070920e415ac813c43e388e5c9bb790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 7c | 2,581$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 11c | 2,171$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…568dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,793$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 1,068$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…024ebacked Yes | 13c | 899.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 6c | 874.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…b941backed Yes | 15c | 651.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 10c | 510$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 74c | 405$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 11c | 330.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…738dbacked Yes | 16c | 257.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…aacabacked Yes | 9c | 232.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680c…6b92backed Yes | 9c | 230.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…576fbacked Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 51c | 197.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 12c | 191.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 186.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 173.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 8c | 162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…6e29backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaef…3f33backed Yes | 46c | 140.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3392…0662backed Yes | 13c | 129.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…bf06backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…3fd1backed Yes | 23c | 94.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…7566backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…2218backed Yes | 14c | 75.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 48c | 73.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…49a8backed Yes | 15c | 68.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 56c | 63.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb093…5480backed Yes | 36c | 61.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will André Ventura win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win less than 16% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.