World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6094490168568dfce5b746771c61b5197d5a1edf02e2c0ef1951f889c34c131a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 75c | 80,167$60,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,706.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 25c | 70,730$17,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,638.39 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 56c | 9,870$5,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,533.04 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…f255backed Yes | 1c | 8,890$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 21c | 6,833$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bc…e306backed Yes | 0c | 4,441$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 11c | 4,231$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.58 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 13c | 2,865$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 59c | 2,070$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.6 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…568dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,867$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 23c | 1,724$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.3 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 1,374$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.21 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 5c | 1,129$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 50c | 1,081$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.62 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 36c | 980.65$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 75c | 893.06$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.05 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 68c | 848.03$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.1 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 78c | 831.84$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 60c | 777$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.61 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 18c | 698.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 600$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 12c | 533$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 28c | 478.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 29c | 394.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 78c | 325.41$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 283.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…228dbacked Yes | 39c | 253.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…95cabacked Yes | 17c | 240.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…52edbacked Yes | 9c | 209.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 48c | 209.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 14c | 207.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…825abacked Yes | 11c | 197.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 71c | 194.62$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 188.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…738dbacked Yes | 35c | 185.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 34c | 156.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 145.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked Yes | 44c | 142.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4356…3076backed Yes | 63c | 135.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…5ab7backed Yes | 24c | 121.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 115.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 111.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 107.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…9a27backed Yes | 35c | 101.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed Yes | 16c | 99.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 43c | 98.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 24c | 96.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 33c | 79.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…6e29backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 74.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9baa…6905backed Yes | 45c | 67.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0940backed Yes | 29c | 52.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…50b5backed Yes | 34c | 44.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 69c | 36.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…ee7bbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…86ebbacked No | 74c | 33.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Yes | 44c | 30.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Yes | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…2e88backed No | 71c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…2bf7backed No | 74c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…9e38backed No | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 74c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…4d74backed No | 70c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…00cabacked No | 74c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will André Ventura win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will André Ventura win less than 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.