World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3c5557abc391421d45bf8fd7c150e6f69c5cf9957a8284390867c62a30baca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 24c | 2,771$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.77 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 1,436$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.34 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 74c | 1,217$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.71 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 22c | 934.4$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.22 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 27c | 917.57$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 832.12$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.34 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 52c | 438.95$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 16c | 395$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 30c | 393.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…568dbacked Yes | 25c | 379.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 31c | 379.35$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.39 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 45c | 323.09$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 295.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 273.74$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 14c | 253$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 29c | 248.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 229.02$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…738dbacked Yes | 22c | 228.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 218.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 210.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Yes | 22c | 186.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 26c | 159$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed No | 75c | 151.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…71dabacked Yes | 22c | 135.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 25c | 134.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…9a27backed Yes | 27c | 123.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…89dcbacked Yes | 21c | 119.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +251.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0940backed Yes | 32c | 117.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 111.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 27c | 109.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…6fb4backed Yes | 33c | 108.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 94.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 25c | 86.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 50c | 77.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 16c | 74.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +183%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…6e29backed Yes | 27c | 73.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 51c | 70.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 28c | 70.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed Yes | 20c | 66.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…001bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…8427backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 60.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 72c | 51.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…2f2dbacked Yes | 31c | 39.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…ba3abacked No | 71c | 39.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…367abacked Yes | 38c | 33.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 72c | 30.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 73c | 30.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…eed7backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…4d2cbacked Yes | 56c | 25.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0458backed No | 71c | 22.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…f70fbacked Yes | 50c | 22.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…9d84backed Yes | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 20.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will André Ventura win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win less than 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.