World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb0069663c043df7c2b915814405e2e3a070d6b02a46dd3e440a6a1341900c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 8c | 5,700$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.28 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 5c | 5,166$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.3 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,457$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,478$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 17c | 999.57$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 23c | 962.79$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.82 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 4c | 737.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…b1a0backed Yes | 22c | 622.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 527.81$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 475.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 78c | 388.52$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 22c | 380.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 27c | 347$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 73c | 347$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 309.1$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 20c | 273.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Yes | 22c | 262.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…e693backed Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 20c | 249.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 19c | 231.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 220.6$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 79c | 218.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 174.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…d1c3backed Yes | 20c | 163.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e8…b5f0backed Yes | 14c | 153.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 141.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 129.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…001bbacked Yes | 10c | 128.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 16c | 111.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…ee7bbacked Yes | 19c | 106.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 21c | 100.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…42d7backed Yes | 21c | 96.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 21c | 96.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 22c | 83.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…367abacked Yes | 21c | 79.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…825abacked Yes | 16c | 76.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 21c | 74.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 59.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…d269backed Yes | 24c | 55.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +256%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…d3a4backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 74c | 52.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked No | 62c | 46.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 74c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…a56bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will André Ventura win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win less than 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.