TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes54c4,573$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes51c2,550$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes47c2,408$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.34540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No1c1,682$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.95380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c1,641$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.726883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked No3c1,608$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.641225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No37c1,588$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.156142.6%26 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes75c1,507$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.775145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes27c1,141$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.54136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No26c1,103$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.094459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No76c1,038$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.0219957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes58c895.91$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.0730233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4462…8d6cbacked No7c800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+681.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No12c720.71$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.339123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes70c670.41$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.913951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No3c557.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.619328%26 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked No4c520.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf0…e8c1backed Yes74c442.62$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No8c433.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.324766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca7…34d2backed No5c429.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No14c429.9$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.042638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes14c381$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.661050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+96.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No11c367.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes29c338.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.52634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8800…c71abacked Yes16c309.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+106.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed No5c308$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed No80c305$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+131.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes20c305$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2441010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No28c294.1$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0328434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x863d…8399backed No7c280$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.071020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ab…f313backed Yes20c246.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+392.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c243.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.451425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No51c237.91$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.97554.7%41 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b8…13a3backed Yes22c224.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.212231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No25c219.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0437117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes20c202.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6616612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.25141.2%21 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes21c192.47$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.676038.3%23 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed Yes14c190$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb856…8fb6backed No12c188$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.061010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263f…017bbacked Yes9c186.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.23933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+61.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…0082backed Yes23c183.33$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.33633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No40c178$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.137646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d38…3bd9backed No61c167.94$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.851625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b7…3188backed No7c164.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes22c161.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7916746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc0a…95cabacked No12c161.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Yes29c160$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c147.58$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.921,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f84…0458backed Yes21c140.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.221050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No77c137.72$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.77128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-89.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes52c131.96$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.447742.9%33 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d1…54cfbacked No8c127.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4a…41ddbacked No13c126.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes27c125.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.862176.2%16 W · 5 L+7.0wins+0.33per pick43cpaid+79.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c124.14$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2799017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xb64e…3c0abacked Yes20c123$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No66c120.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7913444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes23c113.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.372450%12 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No13c111.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3444921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked No48c105.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.653928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00cf…62b3backed Yes74c104.4$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c94.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4132255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda1a…ef06backed Yes23c88.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No23c68.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.862133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x442e…a738backed Yes50c63.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.841850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…367abacked Yes25c59.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.831154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8953…7f3abacked Yes34c59.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.611816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ba…6c31backed Yes27c55.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No79c51.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.146330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1425…c7c4backed Yes51c51.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.121241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes39c46.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2414947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0031…586ebacked Yes24c45.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4938…4d58backed Yes68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes76c35.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.314126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No77c32.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e8…3f48backed Yes63c31.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.79850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed No80c23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x640f…4cc0backed No72c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-45.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No75c20.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.381080%8 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.