Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3185a9da4ec6438737ce7cc723fca4ea2a63c0bc309cd92f9fcfb9e15571953e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $404,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $301,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	28,238$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.21	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb198…cdc9backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec9…b5d7backed Yes	0c	23,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d1…c722backed Yes	0c	22,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b7…1237backed Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	7,192$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.13	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	5,882$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.23	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	5,473$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.07	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	29c	4,980$1,423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,422.89	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	4,494$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	9c	4,142$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.04	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	19c	4,053$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.46	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…0cebbacked Yes	11c	3,408$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes	20c	3,337$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.52	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	10c	3,126$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.81	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	3,112$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes	32c	2,937$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.32	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Yes	18c	2,837$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	7c	2,744$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.36	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Yes	36c	2,741$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	39c	2,608$1,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.67	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	43c	2,573$1,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,101.07	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes	11c	2,521$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.83	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac3…0684backed Yes	21c	2,423$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	42c	2,289$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$968.01	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	43c	2,220$961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,258.51	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	64c	2,205$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$786.15	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	10c	2,128$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.24	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73fb…9754backed Yes	27c	2,097$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	8c	2,053$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Yes	24c	2,045$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	2,019$1,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.22	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	2,006$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.46	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	9c	1,998$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.81	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes	39c	1,797$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.57	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes	47c	1,642$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.86	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	15c	1,608$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.95	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96d…fca0backed Yes	14c	1,490$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	55c	1,303$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.28	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	19c	1,200$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.39	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	10c	1,160$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	1,126$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.3	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes	9c	1,123$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	5c	1,082$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	1,048$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	38c	1,044$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.46	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc91…99c0backed Yes	5c	999.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	15c	999.99$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	6c	999.94$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	55c	983.11$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.81	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	9c	970.5$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.22	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	8c	943.16$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	34c	929.47$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	8c	924.73$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	14c	917.34$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.82	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	16c	867.88$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.02	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	8c	857.42$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	11c	830.44$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.46	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	830$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb31…61e1backed Yes	36c	826.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	11c	801.02$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	16c	800.46$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.35	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	15c	793.38$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	10c	760.24$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…2886backed Yes	40c	744.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	11c	684.8$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.74	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42ed…5ebabacked Yes	21c	652.35$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No	64c	650.97$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.94	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	71cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No	51c	644.03$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.67	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	7c	639.13$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.39	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	19c	630.25$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.17	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02b0…10ecbacked Yes	15c	623.47$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	8c	600$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	11c	600$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.45	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x097d…83f6backed Yes	41c	585.9$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.39	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	583.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4586…158cbacked No	79c	559.28$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.86	34	73.5%25 W · 9 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x158f…2bb3backed Yes	9c	550$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed Yes	37c	538.25$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.89	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5994…5c8bbacked Yes	40c	531.75$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050c…d7cebacked No	67c	517.83$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aac…7b50backed Yes	4c	479.07$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes	49c	472.01$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.68	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	35c	466.84$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.86	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	12c	461.83$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.63	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	9c	446.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked No	59c	437.95$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.61	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed No	54c	425.68$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.84	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes	24c	417.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5801…1c21backed Yes	19c	400.76$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No	8c	383$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.36	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+9.2wins	+0.37per pick	11cpaid	+624.5%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	14c	378.28$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.66	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x780b…c90dbacked Yes	19c	374.19$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.58	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	10c	372.97$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.51	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x857a…9325backed Yes	54c	356.24$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.74	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes	6c	349.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	9c	335.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b3…a00cbacked Yes	5c	318.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	306$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event