Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fd5e667b0e00fe31a6db3bf866df2d76735e0dd3cd91590801086c7a1e919b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 1c | 8,491$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 34c | 4,899$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,216.99 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 63c | 4,473$2,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 50c | 4,016$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.72 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…97e3backed Yes | 72c | 3,629$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 53c | 3,628$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.19 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 43c | 2,833$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 47c | 2,737$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.38 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.98 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 43c | 2,363$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.94 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 2,337$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.54 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,306$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.86 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 58c | 2,196$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 27c | 2,002$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.6 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 32c | 1,745$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 43c | 1,693$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.77 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 51c | 1,588$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.24 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 72c | 1,550$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…d114backed No | 72c | 1,476$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,430$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.38 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes | 16c | 1,324$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 16c | 1,237$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.95 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 59c | 1,237$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.32 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 1,236$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.74 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 17c | 1,236$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026 | 70 | 5.7%4 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,211$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.19 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 35c | 1,174$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.62 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 62c | 1,078$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.89 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 39c | 1,063$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.38 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 60c | 969.4$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 59c | 960.14$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.14 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 35c | 950$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 50c | 907.5$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.57 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 36c | 904.57$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.57 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 22c | 868.87$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.98 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 44c | 862.84$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.84 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…4fadbacked No | 19c | 778.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 43c | 774.62$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.74 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 63c | 759.89$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.52 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes | 53c | 753.35$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.66 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…20bfbacked No | 14c | 720.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 44c | 716.16$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.64 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 8c | 694.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.17 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 59c | 643.57$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 22c | 635.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 17c | 633.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.33 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 63c | 599.9$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.15 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 79c | 598.9$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.87 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes | 49c | 563.12$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 66c | 561.42$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.57 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes | 55c | 558.07$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.54 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes | 18c | 552.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.29 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 2c | 531.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 36c | 500$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.01 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 20c | 499.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.19 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 65c | 470.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.81 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 20c | 451.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.34 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 56c | 450$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 41c | 446.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.15 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 442.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.77 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 46c | 415.86$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 77c | 413.13$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.14 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0015…d5b0backed No | 4c | 403.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 45c | 401.41$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes | 24c | 365.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.64 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 64c | 360$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…f495backed Yes | 74c | 335.78$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…881cbacked Yes | 65c | 330.87$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…5b8bbacked No | 46c | 330.81$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 27c | 311.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.28 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…49efbacked Yes | 55c | 283.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…9c45backed No | 76c | 276$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 75c | 274.23$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…9325backed Yes | 42c | 270.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…a210backed No | 41c | 269.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 31c | 266.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…bf23backed Yes | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…bd6abacked No | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…31c2backed Yes | 16c | 254.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…8a2abacked Yes | 40c | 252.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 40c | 251.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1de…85d9backed Yes | 34c | 240$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f433backed Yes | 55c | 235.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…7f48backed Yes | 79c | 235.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes | 39c | 233.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 72c | 230.49$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed Yes | 13c | 224.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes | 47c | 223.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 16c | 214$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.67 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…72f1backed Yes | 59c | 213.65$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…184ebacked No | 49c | 213.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 35c | 206.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…3926backed Yes | 12c | 200.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.