TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$206,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed No1c8,491$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.075325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes34c4,899$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.9945715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes63c4,473$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,673.662437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes50c4,016$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.7268615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa442…97e3backed Yes72c3,629$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes53c3,628$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.1929331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No43c2,833$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes47c2,737$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.3862713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.988206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes43c2,363$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.9423914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c2,337$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.542,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes73c2,306$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.864524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes58c2,196$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.442020%4 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes27c2,002$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.645911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes32c1,745$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.2541017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes43c1,693$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.774022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No51c1,588$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.2414015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes72c1,550$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.392532%8 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed No72c1,476$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.841926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes37c1,430$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.3817322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes16c1,324$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.89922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+153.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes16c1,237$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.9523217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes59c1,237$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.3228534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c1,236$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.7499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes17c1,236$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026705.7%4 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes41c1,211$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.196119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes35c1,174$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.622222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes62c1,078$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.8954122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes39c1,063$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.383225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes14c1,000$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.212218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes60c969.4$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes59c960.14$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.145813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No35c950$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32923464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes50c907.5$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.575198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes36c904.57$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.5711220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes22c868.87$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.982097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes44c862.84$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.846243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c5…4fadbacked No19c778.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes43c774.62$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.747524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes63c759.89$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.524520%9 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes53c753.35$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.666431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…20bfbacked No14c720.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes44c716.16$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6428113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes8c694.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.1773215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No59c643.57$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.14540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No22c635.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.923023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes17c633.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.3342110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes63c599.9$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1524618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes79c598.9$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.876248.4%30 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes49c563.12$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.12812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes66c561.42$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5738811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes55c558.07$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.543636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes18c552.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.293912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No2c531.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6426516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes36c500$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0124115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes20c499.82$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.193619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No65c470.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8118163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes20c451.11$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.34339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes56c450$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.52339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+60.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes41c446.02$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.1584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes36c442.86$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.7743933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No46c415.86$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.931,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No77c413.13$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1454675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0015…d5b0backed No4c403.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152619.2%5 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes45c401.41$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5113818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes24c365.64$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.643917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes64c360$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.66124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8196…f495backed Yes74c335.78$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6a…881cbacked Yes65c330.87$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.292532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked No46c330.81$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4611221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes27c311.53$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2829610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes61c300$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.572828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Yes55c283.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f5…9c45backed No76c276$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.941127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes75c274.23$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.663823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x857a…9325backed Yes42c270.39$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.69837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2741718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0b…a210backed No41c269.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes31c266.32$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.763333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9efe…bf23backed Yes60c260$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f4…bd6abacked No40c260$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb30b…31c2backed Yes16c254.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+111.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa769…8a2abacked Yes40c252.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.351625%4 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes40c251.56$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6920226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14014715%22 W · 125 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes34c240$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.41526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb630…f433backed Yes55c235.3$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…7f48backed Yes79c235.27$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes39c233.9$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.91020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes72c230.49$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4315435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes13c224.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.035317%9 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes47c223.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.172119%4 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes16c214$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.6728211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b48…72f1backed Yes59c213.65$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadb…184ebacked No49c213.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes35c206.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9822119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e2…3926backed Yes12c200.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.321225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.