Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41325da1dd233006e3ba0cdc375a62a359be3c444f0ccbf463d83c60d19b2696

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $220,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,633 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	30,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	25,368$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.17	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	1c	10,507$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	5,636$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.27	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,086$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.29	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1191…f6a8backed Yes	0c	5,073$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,629$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	3,903$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.35	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	1c	2,989$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	4c	2,128$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.3	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	2c	2,106$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.86	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	2,063$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.04	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	2,054$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,961$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.18	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	2c	1,782$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	1,639$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,376$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	2c	1,351$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	1,311$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	3c	1,128$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.23	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,050$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2356…b9a5backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8f…2f92backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3b…0a14backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9046…802dbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89f1…56d0backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0cc…94fcbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	918.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	2c	861.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	835.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes	2c	783$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	765$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	2c	676.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	4c	674.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	569.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x155a…18c8backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc40a…603fbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed Yes	2c	470.73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe995…e7d1backed Yes	7c	458.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	2c	416.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes	5c	393.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event