Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bef72c679510cc846c55fafdaf5b182358d6785f7096822663441a0e1f57078

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $288,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $189,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,003 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	21,031$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.5	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	10,505$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.59	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	9,868$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.81	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No	77c	9,102$7,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,100.39	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	11c	8,237$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$872.73	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	8c	8,107$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	7,919$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	16c	5,335$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.53	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	35c	5,000$1,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	18c	5,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	9c	4,147$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.2	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	4,124$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.61	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	22c	4,000$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873.31	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	3,375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	11c	2,625$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.5	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes	38c	2,268$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$853.77	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	33c	2,200$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.9	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	25c	2,000$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.95	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes	23c	2,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73fb…9754backed Yes	9c	1,958$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	15c	1,947$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.49	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	28c	1,930$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.35	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	29c	1,758$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.38	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	16c	1,654$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.11	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	4c	1,625$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	24c	1,478$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	71c	1,333$951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.12	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	30c	1,254$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.32	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	21c	1,068$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.01	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	1,047$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.84	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	16c	1,000$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.78	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	15c	973.14$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.21	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked No	76c	964.41$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.92	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	23c	939.17$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.93	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked Yes	6c	903.33$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f45…a3b9backed Yes	2c	861.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	19cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	30c	844.83$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	24c	820.71$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	30c	802.9$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	28c	793.96$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	29c	775.86$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.95	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	765.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed No	79c	757.64$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.64	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	18c	734.74$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.56	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	25c	728.35$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.04	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Yes	8c	723$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.59	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+162.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	17c	710$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.2	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	1c	689.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	25c	666.34$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.49	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	73c	646.45$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.94	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	15c	646.12$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.89	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	27c	603.26$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.57	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	24c	599.7$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.38	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	17c	587.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	80c	587.7$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.85	12	75%9 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	17c	581.01$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	580.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	25c	559.58$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.1	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050c…d7cebacked Yes	14c	555$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	18c	550$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	19c	501.22$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.92	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	28cpaid	+60.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb49f…12e6backed Yes	2c	499.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No	70c	494.01$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.05	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	9c	467.91$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.69	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	25c	460$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.2	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	24c	414.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+3.9wins	+0.21per pick	27cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	26c	389.13$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.08	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	7c	384.62$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes	8c	365.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…8b3ebacked Yes	28c	317.14$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.5	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes	32c	315.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	22c	314$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.6	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6a…881cbacked Yes	10c	311.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…7d27backed Yes	25c	311.6$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.9	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes	13c	300$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.77	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7403…8eb5backed Yes	33c	300$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd5…0381backed Yes	22c	290.41$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	15c	283.36$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.85	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes	36c	277.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes	36c	274.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes	11c	270.95$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b48…72f1backed Yes	31c	264.2$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.75	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes	10c	257.73$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	14c	255$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.85	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x857a…9325backed Yes	31c	251.06$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.89	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes	25c	235.03$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50c0…1e00backed Yes	22c	225.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	28c	221.28$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.35	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	26c	208.58$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes	27c	206$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafce…5c9bbacked Yes	23c	200.32$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd25d…6088backed Yes	25c	200.31$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…dcf0backed Yes	25c	200.29$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.3	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b13…188cbacked Yes	24c	200.25$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event