Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3678b53485c50022e0a42189af766ee67b43b6578086d4b9d885a96c23b2437a

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $235,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $115,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,063 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,453$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	3,800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,008$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	1,057$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f73…d353backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaab…f40cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2887…1bd0backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6200…a917backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	3c	906.3$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	3c	722.76$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd646…f37ebacked Yes	3c	692.37$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	2c	600$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	520$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8439…2d19backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf26f…79b3backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	495.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x868d…8d9dbacked Yes	14c	348.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	11c	295.83$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	270.56$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2441…6d21backed Yes	12c	170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	9c	134.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes	15c	125$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	9c	106.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event