Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22e8a754527e158345795e626df201ce8e329c3a3bb6582982761d7fe37c8af

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $206,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,929 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	104,000$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	13c	5,424$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.16	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	0c	3,446$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	2,701$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,895$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	1,550$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,514$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	3c	1,307$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.06	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes	2c	1,225$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	8c	1,173$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.88	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	1,100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.54	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	1,055$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.94	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed9…f365backed Yes	2c	977.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes	6c	922.55$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.05	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x097d…83f6backed Yes	11c	877.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	11c	708.49$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	701.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	688.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	4c	600$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	10c	500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	7c	300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	6c	246.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	10c	229.12$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b13…188cbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf8…bfd6backed Yes	10c	193.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes	7c	159.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51a5…7151backed Yes	15c	73.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event