Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68416ab9966ec6f839da869bf887e2eafebfe98fb27e3457ae960e8ac414c6f6

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $242,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,925 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	47,603$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.6	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab0…cfaebacked Yes	1c	13,446$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed Yes	3c	11,937$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.45	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	26cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	4,561$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ad…9b05backed Yes	1c	4,481$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	4,295$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.96	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,518$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.11	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	8c	3,000$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	2c	2,574$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.99	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	2,342$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.28	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,303$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	2,165$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.26	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes	3c	2,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	6c	1,913$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.9	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,875$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	3c	1,422$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.15	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	17c	1,200$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	1,132$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	16c	1,098$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,075$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes	2c	1,058$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-43%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	972.36$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.06	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	957.38$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.01	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	6c	936.91$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.56	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes	15c	843.91$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.59	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed9…f365backed Yes	2c	815.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	765.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd476…ff0ebacked Yes	13c	727.31$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.85	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	710$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd099…fbc5backed Yes	14c	703.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	18c	700$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe86c…10f3backed Yes	2c	617.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	605.6$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.47	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7961…2a74backed Yes	3c	564.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	529.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes	11c	528.05$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.09	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	14c	514.36$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.84	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x097d…83f6backed Yes	20c	508.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes	4c	500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	13c	499.8$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.97	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x243f…12fabacked Yes	19c	400$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	391$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	14c	318.43$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	18c	314.11$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.18	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes	3c	306$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	12c	243$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.16	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	13c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…dcf0backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b13…188cbacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e2…3926backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	8c	198.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…bfd6backed Yes	13c	156$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes	18c	133.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes	17c	119.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	9c	115.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…08bfbacked Yes	13c	110$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3562…539ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbc…7d14backed Yes	16c	72.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51df…c96ebacked Yes	16c	65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaba…a1d7backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event