Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb342aa22c48f133a59308ac9482d7138eebc2e4f2ef412690c41ac19801dde32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ba4…d828backed Yes | 0c | 3,779$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…fb0ebacked Yes | 29c | 975$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed No | 77c | 858.02$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.02 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 26c | 756.41$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.85 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 748.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 46c | 595.33$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…8af6backed Yes | 33c | 520$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 429.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…8189backed No | 71c | 345$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d5…ccc7backed No | 67c | 315$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 12c | 294.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…7a5fbacked No | 71c | 290$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 12c | 263.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…8b48backed Yes | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 10c | 218.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 190.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…0debbacked No | 75c | 153.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…dc58backed No | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…0d1fbacked No | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 68c | 141.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 14c | 138$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 31c | 124$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…602dbacked No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 101.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 73c | 95.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 43c | 92.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 24c | 84.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…45c5backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…dd44backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…3cdabacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…01f2backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…4c80backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…95a8backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c6c7backed Yes | 29c | 60.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…6cecbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…b6d3backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 52c | 46.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…963ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 30c | 40.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…47e9backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…9496backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 37.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…f2edbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…d4e3backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffba…1dbabacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 75c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8ec3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.