World Politics · resolved market
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd6fbfc18a75a292327e817aa034707cfd01e2fd3284cb43f3223399fe1c124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $729,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $820,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $729,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.55 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…311bbacked No | 63c | 60,816$38,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,501.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e7…fba5backed Yes | 37c | 60,816$22,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,501.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 1c | 26,166$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 2c | 13,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 1c | 11,213$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 1c | 9,388$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 8,550$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…0bc9backed Yes | 2c | 7,396$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,504$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 2c | 6,110$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…6188backed No | 67c | 5,053$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…c2dabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,650$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 1c | 4,133$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,047$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 32c | 3,149$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,870$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 2,776$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.14 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,591$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 2c | 2,556$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,471$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…5d65backed Yes | 1c | 2,470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 2,056$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.01 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…f53abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 28c | 1,915$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.98 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 1,635$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.06 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 17c | 1,551$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.83 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…4bcebacked Yes | 2c | 1,378$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 2c | 1,331$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 3c | 1,095$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,034$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1593backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…d2cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 2c | 976.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 2c | 931$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 929.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed Yes | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 2c | 834.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 23c | 800$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 2c | 739.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…a576backed Yes | 2c | 738$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 2c | 706.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 2c | 640$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…9198backed Yes | 2c | 535.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 526.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 511.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…4655backed Yes | 4c | 504.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…a528backed Yes | 38c | 480$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5d1abacked No | 62c | 480$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…321abacked Yes | 3c | 400.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…e72fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 19c | 399.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 371$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 5c | 335.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 15c | 327.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked Yes | 9c | 271.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?this page
- Will Alain St Ange win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?No won
- Will Danny Faure win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?No won
- Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Yes won
- Will Kisna Louise win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?No won
- Will Ralph Volcère win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?No won
- Will Robin Johnston win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?No won
- Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.