Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.4% and 4.5% on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e0300352e95019959a2ea809911b26fc95fd51b8f74c9169486c80aea38ae1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc00…d9e8backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e8…68a7backed Yes | 32c | 815$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…fe8abacked No | 75c | 730$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed No | 68c | 730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac26…38b6backed No | 68c | 730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 32c | 617.93$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 49c | 565$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…fc89backed Yes | 32c | 565$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 18c | 480$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…06b2backed Yes | 45c | 406.85$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…0210backed No | 68c | 390$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3cbebacked No | 75c | 390$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…91cfbacked Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…9d1bbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e2…7709backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 15c | 272.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…812bbacked No | 68c | 270$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…9151backed No | 68c | 270$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…b2ebbacked No | 68c | 260$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 39c | 223.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…a86ebacked No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fb43backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…e9fabacked No | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…97c7backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked No | 75c | 110$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 53c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…18f1backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…f77abacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbf…9447backed Yes | 36c | 55.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 55.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 57c | 49.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…b88ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 80c | 26.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…3be2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…9cb4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.4% and 4.5% on April 11?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be above 4.8% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.2% and 4.3% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.5% and 4.6% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.7% and 4.8% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be less than 4.2% on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.