Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1320293c9c9b51c0936617ca9a30a6a7441b6f6a307b2ba404f5caf44ae1ad4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ae2…7e82backed No | 74c | 985$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed No | 74c | 980$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…789dbacked Yes | 26c | 925$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed Yes | 55c | 735$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2563…f528backed Yes | 26c | 735$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed No | 78c | 711.93$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 26c | 586.19$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 8c | 414.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…06b2backed Yes | 36c | 300.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac26…38b6backed Yes | 55c | 265$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…a97bbacked Yes | 26c | 265$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 24c | 151.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…fe70backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 64.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…3a3abacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbf…9447backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 63c | 44.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 75c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be above 4.8% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.2% and 4.3% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.4% and 4.5% on April 11?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.5% and 4.6% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.7% and 4.8% on April 11?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield be less than 4.2% on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.