AI · resolved market
Will Cursor support Grok-3 before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd9785916a85123520fe8f41cf6f72e7dc23c04f5f4afa6b80551c5f6367802b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,774$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5200backed No | 29c | 1,168$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked No | 2c | 595.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +1,611.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 8c | 513.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 3c | 433.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.98 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 46c | 399.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 11c | 374.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.33 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 314.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.67 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…8c23backed No | 6c | 313.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,468.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed No | 15c | 135.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 45c | 127.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 62c | 109.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 20c | 108.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 20c | 101.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…a010backed Yes | 78c | 77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed No | 45c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…0473backed No | 62c | 64.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c1…e575backed Yes | 78c | 63.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 54c | 63.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed No | 18c | 59.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 80c | 54.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…f49ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 53c | 49.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…d24bbacked No | 27c | 47.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes | 73c | 36.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 38c | 35.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…df53backed Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdca…3bc6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…a2d7backed Yes | 79c | 14.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.