Chess · resolved market
Nepomniachtchi vs. Keymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35a706c28ebe9577a9da839a6f80dc50d1aef5e41f411f24b50bda525eaee3f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keymer of Nepomniachtchi, Keymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Nepomniachtchi | 63c | 3,177$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Keymer | 43c | 3,005$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Nepomniachtchi | 5c | 2,802$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Nepomniachtchi | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.56 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Keymer | 45c | 1,032$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…8b01backed Keymer | 51c | 939.42$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Keymer | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Keymer | 42c | 350$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Keymer | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Nepomniachtchi | 61c | 117.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Nepomniachtchi | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nepomniachtchi | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Keymer | 42c | 59.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Nepomniachtchi | 50c | 57.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Keymer | 48c | 53.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Nepomniachtchi | 72c | 43.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Nepomniachtchi | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Keymer | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Nepomniachtchi | 61c | 33.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Keymer | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Nepomniachtchi | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Nepomniachtchi | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Nepomniachtchi | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nepomniachtchi vs. Keymer this page
- Carlsen vs. AbdusattorovCarlsen won
- Erigaisi vs. NakamuraNakamura won
- Vachier-Lagrave vs. Caruana Caruana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.