Chess · resolved market
Carlsen vs. Abdusattorov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b375951845fdcf2f88b64f5302da4bdfc1cc85db08add0f320e27837fa875ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carlsenof Carlsen, Abdusattorov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Abdusattorov | 9c | 1,888$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Carlsen | 76c | 1,050$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Abdusattorov | 13c | 800$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Abdusattorov | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Carlsen | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Abdusattorov | 23c | 333.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Abdusattorov | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Abdusattorov | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Abdusattorov | 25c | 234.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Abdusattorov | 12c | 202.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Abdusattorov | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Abdusattorov | 22c | 83.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Carlsen | 74c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…5553backed Carlsen | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Carlsen | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carlsen vs. Abdusattorovthis page
- Erigaisi vs. NakamuraNakamura won
- Nepomniachtchi vs. Keymer Keymer won
- Vachier-Lagrave vs. Caruana Caruana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.