World Politics · resolved market
Will PAS win by between 4-8% of the vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b9b62e09bf8429a058dd94edbeb3849691b41f2545fdd93af0473234a752be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…3171backed Yes | 12c | 1,450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebd…cb20backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 342.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 12c | 320.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…7ba2backed Yes | 19c | 281.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 19c | 264.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 17c | 198.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 26c | 194.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 80c | 186.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 18c | 159.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 80c | 155.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 14c | 134.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 112.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…72f4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 75c | 49.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf781…e657backed Yes | 41c | 48.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAS win by between 4-8% of the vote?this page
- Will PAS win by between 12-16% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by between 8-12% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote?Yes won
- Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.