World Politics · resolved market
Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21315ff1eef37ccdad0eb5f15b789b21ef243471ebf39a02039ef7c4c6ceecb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 13c | 2,753$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.34 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 1,607$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.48 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…3171backed Yes | 8c | 1,593$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 10c | 1,345$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 23c | 831.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 25c | 401.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 307.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…9981backed Yes | 16c | 306$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 78c | 256$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 199.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 15c | 100.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673c…daa6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +318%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote?this page
- Will PAS win by between 12-16% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by between 4-8% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by between 8-12% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.