World Politics · resolved market
Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d76de63eb42cca00847ec009c5f21dfefd7ab684d91840476dbe0b810a9d06d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 32c | 8,591$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,837.01 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 70c | 6,793$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.96 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 28c | 5,575$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.8 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,333$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.09 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…f0eebacked No | 2c | 2,155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed No | 73c | 1,828$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 49c | 1,779$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.42 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 26c | 1,600$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.17 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 1,532$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.91 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 19c | 899.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 68c | 831.38$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.75 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7922…ef61backed Yes | 59c | 685.74$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…767dbacked No | 73c | 673.12$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e4a1backed Yes | 38c | 667.56$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 663.62$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…9981backed Yes | 29c | 605.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed No | 2c | 562.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 25c | 453.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.89 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 364.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked No | 66c | 344.89$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 71c | 330$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 76c | 300$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed No | 75c | 298.6$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 69c | 288.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 275.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.49 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…a42abacked Yes | 34c | 261.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 69c | 251$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…d8f4backed No | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452c…340fbacked Yes | 38c | 183.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 26c | 160.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 149$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…55d6backed No | 74c | 138.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 126.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…8ceebacked No | 69c | 122.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…9dfebacked Yes | 32c | 119.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 116.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 73c | 105.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf781…e657backed Yes | 54c | 102.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 54c | 91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 71c | 66.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed Yes | 33c | 60.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 56.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…d23fbacked Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…1267backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 41.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +108%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9e…6018backed No | 70c | 36.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…291ebacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed No | 75c | 33.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…accebacked No | 71c | 32.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked No | 74c | 26.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…b3a5backed No | 71c | 25.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked No | 76c | 20.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote?this page
- Will PAS win by between 12-16% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by between 4-8% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by between 8-12% of the vote?No won
- Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.