Middle East · resolved market
US strike on Syria by December 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30926c56fb49de5c99197a956141d6578f4d2a5341dfa3991df5752c60829339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 4c | 31,350$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.18 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 1c | 10,753$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,245$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 4,752$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 3c | 1,775$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,688$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,520$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,513$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 1,301$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 2c | 775.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…4336backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strike on Syria by December 14?this page
- US strike on Syria by December 19?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by December 31?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by January 31?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.