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Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c18,353$8,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,709.33,28842.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L-74.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over57c7,021$3,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.681181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over41c5,418$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,173.0575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over55c4,657$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,095.67447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under45c2,400$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over28c2,048$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.372,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Under45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9008637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over56c1,750$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.495068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x03b9…7e74backed Over53c1,435$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Over62c1,399$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.62955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e1…5924backed Under4c1,200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over56c1,112$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.258336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Over56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over56c982.14$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1438055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over74c905.41$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.4120143.8%88 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Over56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under52c747.9$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over28c714.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.293145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over54c605.83$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6813342.9%57 W · 76 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Over56c499.76$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf945…7eb1backed Over6c445$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,666.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe82e…2193backed Under47c395.74$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Over51c354.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.581566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…7fc3backed Over56c348.04$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3311857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under45c323.11$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8419544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over58c286.17$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.152948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1aa…054ebacked Over62c258.5$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.23333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…4399backed Over59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under44c241$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04c8…8538backed Under44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe5…8719backed Over56c203.21$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3228…b4e3backed Over56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over19c182$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.574542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…1a9cbacked Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Under69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-25.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Over56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.861384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Over56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a40…afaabacked Over56c140.23$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.72755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over56c130$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.28459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under44c126.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4510040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb7…d0acbacked Over56c125$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Over62c121.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8b…51f7backed Over56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.142138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca6…0d08backed Over67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3710…2b8dbacked Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…be02backed Under44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Over54c99.74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.144652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c98.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.711,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Under42c98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x936b…c603backed Over41c97.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.221662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+76.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed Over24c81.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under43c79.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3911458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Under45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f6…b32cbacked Under79c66.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6654…5952backed Over75c62.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Under46c60.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.683951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e65…9691backed Over56c56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under50c53.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9910150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over55c53.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0512162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Over60c52.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.995156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Over68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.473655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Over57c47.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.435839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb9…65bfbacked Under43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Over62c40.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over55c39.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.996464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Under46c38.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.981353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over34c33.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1838151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3334855.5%193 W · 155 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2511952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a01…9320backed Over52c30.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd483…6365backed Under45c26.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7658…28bcbacked Under79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Under45c22.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.034445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bca…dcaabacked Over56c21.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Over57c20.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26fb…7910backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd816…84b9backed Over56c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+70.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.