TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,335 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7087…c61fbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184632c6,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9202441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked FC Bayern München44c4,998$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,798.775152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184654c4,444$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.1575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 1. FC Heidenheim 18461c3,873$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked FC Bayern München46c3,522$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.6133244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed FC Bayern München47c3,502$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.9744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c2,926$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.683,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184656c2,609$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.797447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184650c2,334$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.5853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c2,100$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked FC Bayern München44c1,957$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+57.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked FC Bayern München45c1,499$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.7227726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked FC Bayern München44c1,250$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked FC Bayern München45c992.54$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.5438055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184613c915.84$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.512,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c832.89$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.341,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c669.64$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed FC Bayern München36c630.56$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.56837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed FC Bayern München73c590$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3224050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c582.87$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0919544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184654c459.78$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.286154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked FC Bayern München58c450.03$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.512661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed FC Bayern München44c395.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.371942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61b2…d3c9backed FC Bayern München47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.151580%12 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked FC Bayern München38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1869951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa47f…dfb1backed FC Bayern München44c272.73$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked FC Bayern München45c219.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.995444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked FC Bayern München46c218.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.862454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x901f…b8b0backed FC Bayern München46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391593.3%14 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick65cpaid+44.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184646c202.03$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184653c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184654c186.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c78…1af0backed FC Bayern München47c180.85$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München44c175$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed FC Bayern München44c159.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.096350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2af6…ff10backed FC Bayern München50c155.34$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ce…77eabacked FC Bayern München69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked FC Bayern München69c137$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.473773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked FC Bayern München42c119.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.174454.5%24 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked FC Bayern München48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37e…0009backed FC Bayern München61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed FC Bayern München48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.992050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa63c…b262backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184648c97.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6f…e727backed FC Bayern München42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.241741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Bayern München61c94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0838151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c90.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.739350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184650c88.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.176556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30dc…9fa0backed FC Bayern München71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4234…6b87backed FC Bayern München72c69.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.693464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e88…7d0cbacked FC Bayern München44c68.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.27540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed FC Bayern München44c57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9214254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked FC Bayern München45c50.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.056053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184650c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184651c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.488154.3%44 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184657c47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.79966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1e…327abacked FC Bayern München44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e74…32c3backed FC Bayern München44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe490…8e6cbacked FC Bayern München45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…d841backed FC Bayern München48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184652c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.813859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed FC Bayern München47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.26464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8a9…22c4backed FC Bayern München50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6014…5a58backed FC Bayern München45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb0b…a307backed FC Bayern München46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.82568%17 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed FC Bayern München45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed FC Bayern München47c37.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8910040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184634c36.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.142536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184633c35.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184655c32.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184651c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.326755.2%37 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc271…1bfdbacked FC Bayern München56c30.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbe7…40ddbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184656c29.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked FC Bayern München43c28.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.037847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed FC Bayern München66c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked FC Bayern München45c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597f…e9cfbacked FC Bayern München66c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.843100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1fb…7c39backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184657c20.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…dad2backed FC Bayern München50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.