Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e63879b340d4e73cb939492408615e3a0fe637bcd6335fa1f620d4b8dd752a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,840$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.92 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 1,459$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 51c | 592.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 52c | 383.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 48c | 332.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 45c | 297.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 52c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 50c | 80.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1e…ca41backed No | 68c | 77.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 49c | 60.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 69c | 54.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 31c | 54.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…9881backed No | 76c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.