Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483f6aa3e9b428ceda83f6cd88e74262f8f9f8f56a9c32a8a87a071232cb4ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 4,321$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 33c | 3,804$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.84 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 68c | 2,165$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.95 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 2,100$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.79 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 77c | 1,307$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.68 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 77c | 1,304$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 732.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…5924backed Under | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…b988backed Over | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 67c | 450$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Over | 57c | 293.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 77c | 259.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…6e03backed Under | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2460…e144backed Under | 49c | 203.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 199.95$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 76c | 199.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…6fe0backed Over | 80c | 166.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 23c | 157.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Under | 44c | 144.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Under | 14c | 104.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Under | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 19c | 80.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 24c | 79.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 71c | 77.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…c6babacked Over | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 56c | 62.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…5348backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…f53bbacked Under | 23c | 48.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…eff8backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…9422backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…a2d1backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…4d5bbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…095dbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…f150backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…38a3backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…4933backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ea…c1edbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6c…cd29backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d9…e920backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c60…33efbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4ef1backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1493…630cbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…5870backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…7904backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…b8b1backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…e9fcbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165c…6c0dbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…39d7backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…d8f4backed Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…1a3bbacked Under | 23c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…4e13backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…22b6backed Over | 74c | 35.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Over | 79c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 77c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa0…abc4backed Over | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.