MLB · resolved market
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2025 NL MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda53fab9b1ed4c29d9f0983cdee033e9e32b85cc949a73332d8a1864b74ed64a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $436,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $460,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $436,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d83…c7c8backed No | 57c | 37,077$21,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,133.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…2d95backed Yes | 43c | 37,077$15,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,133.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…bb3fbacked No | 20c | 33,358$6,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,717.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3779backed No | 59c | 30,211$17,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,824.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…ea5cbacked Yes | 41c | 30,211$12,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,824.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…a7a2backed Yes | 41c | 27,244$11,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,073.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…ebdcbacked No | 59c | 27,244$16,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,073.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…5873backed No | 45c | 26,867$12,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,090.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…570ebacked Yes | 55c | 26,867$14,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,090.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826f…6e3dbacked Yes | 43c | 23,411$10,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,344.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…2af9backed No | 57c | 23,411$13,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,344.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,252$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 25c | 4,866$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.67 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…7c8cbacked No | 33c | 3,270$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 78c | 3,092$2,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.07 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 51c | 2,389$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed No | 3c | 2,030$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,920$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 39c | 1,848$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.87 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,704$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 78c | 1,701$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.12 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 1c | 1,431$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed No | 41c | 1,176$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,171$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.23 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 20c | 994.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 951.66$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.17 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 13c | 856$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c3…5350backed Yes | 67c | 465.39$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 58c | 410.68$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.54 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 22c | 390$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked No | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 77c | 221$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 27c | 213.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 189.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 67c | 180.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked No | 62c | 172.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 367 | 29.4%108 W · 259 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 23c | 172$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 65c | 170$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…b24cbacked No | 18c | 166$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 35c | 161$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784c…c6febacked Yes | 37c | 160.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 158.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ed…a6c8backed Yes | 79c | 152.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 79c | 151$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…d9bcbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 14c | 138.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…9686backed Yes | 48c | 102.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…8369backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…496fbacked Yes | 67c | 89.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 23c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 24c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 52.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…fd15backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 44c | 44.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…a5fbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 79c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3f…fb85backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 71c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2025 NL MVP?this page
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2025 NL MVP?No won
- Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2025 NL MVP?No won
- Will Juan Soto win the 2025 NL MVP?No won
- Will Kyle Tucker win the 2025 NL MVP?No won
- Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2025 NL MVP?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 NL MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.