TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,860 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes30c7,986$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.897331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes27c4,604$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.932437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes26c3,333$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.64368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed No67c2,042$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.811464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+76.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No79c1,831$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.9116725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x935d…08ffbacked Yes13c1,748$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.861723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-66.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No67c1,361$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.127147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c1,161$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.3999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb289…a997backed Yes39c1,073$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.41425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No72c984.99$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.7210452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ea…9217backed Yes26c968.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes23c829.51$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.415825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa109…a628backed Yes30c790$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c774.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6539522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec55…01ccbacked Yes30c773.57$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes9c759$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+540.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9351…db66backed Yes10c702.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b66…a2f3backed Yes32c700$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes26c600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9223543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbab…9a8abacked No73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes11c492.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.283540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3106…d672backed Yes26c425.52$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+39.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No78c390$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.86028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c370$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No74c317.4$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.876358.7%37 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes30c317.03$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2817544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes34c298$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.336645.5%30 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes29c258$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0610324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No66c245.34$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c231.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes28c222$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2711428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes34c208.73$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No71c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes11c195.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.582927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc07c…517ebacked Yes8c191$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+138.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No74c185.36$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.328169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes27c141.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.129340.9%38 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea7…6451backed Yes36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes25c117.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.892429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes25c109$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.252850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…1af7backed Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+51.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes28c103.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.534027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…e8a1backed Yes35c94.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c85.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4944111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed No74c82.17$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.363053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+132.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c81.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fab…0f01backed Yes27c74.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c73.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.741,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c72.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.611,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7250…a7ecbacked Yes17c66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ca…038cbacked Yes23c62.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No71c55.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0425241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ff…2631backed No66c15.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.