Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x053839c5e9a36ffff51d430d7e7e9702746e13d47bca972e9824d0115178b3d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 30c | 7,986$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.89 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 27c | 4,604$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 3,333$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.64 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed No | 67c | 2,042$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 1,831$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.91 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,748$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 67c | 1,361$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.12 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 1,161$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…a997backed Yes | 39c | 1,073$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 984.99$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.72 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9217backed Yes | 26c | 968.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 23c | 829.51$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.41 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…a628backed Yes | 30c | 790$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 774.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…01ccbacked Yes | 30c | 773.57$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 9c | 759$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +540.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…db66backed Yes | 10c | 702.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…a2f3backed Yes | 32c | 700$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 26c | 600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 11c | 492.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 26c | 425.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 78c | 390$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 370$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 74c | 317.4$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 30c | 317.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 34c | 298$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 29c | 258$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 66c | 245.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 231.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 28c | 222$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 34c | 208.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 11c | 195.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 74c | 185.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 27c | 141.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…6451backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 25c | 117.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1af7backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 28c | 103.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…e8a1backed Yes | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 85.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 74c | 82.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 81.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…0f01backed Yes | 27c | 74.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 73.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 72.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…a7ecbacked Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…038cbacked Yes | 23c | 62.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 55.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…2631backed No | 66c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 15% and 20%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 20% and 25%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 25% and 30%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 30%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.