Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4143dd5c609a9c613b2476caea80de35b9778c00a0afc493755a9b55814e4e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,692$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 2,878$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 1,800$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 905.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 18c | 832.73$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 21c | 640$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 547.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 390.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 292.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 245$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 16c | 194.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…517ebacked Yes | 17c | 191$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…9ab1backed Yes | 20c | 75.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 30%?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 15% and 20%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 20% and 25%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 25% and 30%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.