World Politics · resolved market
Yoon out of custody in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb011c13f62270ccb4e9583aefd83b17a4168edc3e3e86ad518125a56fd33b2c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa847…88a5backed Yes | 12c | 17,776$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.46 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked Yes | 12c | 16,591$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.94 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 10c | 8,926$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.83 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 4,028$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 12c | 2,724$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.31 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…4252backed Yes | 14c | 2,186$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 12c | 1,647$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 11c | 1,535$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…155ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,085$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 926.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…da93backed Yes | 12c | 860.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes | 12c | 843.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 808.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7b7dbacked Yes | 2c | 505$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 9c | 482$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 439.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…d1b7backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…e0ccbacked Yes | 10c | 353.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…171ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…f1bfbacked Yes | 14c | 299.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 297.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 297.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 12c | 275.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 9c | 253.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…b707backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 15c | 184.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…9091backed Yes | 14c | 138.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…1997backed Yes | 14c | 108.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 101.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 101.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.