World Politics · resolved market
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9101b7b2ad1dceabc9eeb8f4b152f6a796d5706404856f757196dfe56a0237d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,611,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,514,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,611,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x459b…3547backed No | 0c | 170,200$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…b9bebacked No | 0c | 168,040$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c4…89adbacked No | 0c | 160,480$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked No | 0c | 135,860$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 0c | 76,539$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed No | 0c | 55,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…930abacked No | 0c | 50,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…4badbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 9c | 39,232$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…1c77backed No | 0c | 35,716$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…7416backed No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 31,791$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100d…496abacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…faecbacked No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…54ebbacked No | 0c | 20,930$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 0c | 20,145$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…8aa1backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…0762backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed No | 0c | 17,010$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…ffccbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…30d4backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…7396backed No | 0c | 14,990$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…260cbacked No | 0c | 14,520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…ecc3backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…7e28backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…f5c1backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…5214backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…161bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…4f21backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 9,814$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 6c | 7,674$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.05 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,651$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…8e57backed No | 0c | 6,595$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 19c | 3,195$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.01 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 7c | 2,603$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.09 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 7c | 1,736$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 6c | 1,559$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 12c | 1,490$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,362$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 10c | 1,167$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 6c | 1,060$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 900$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 59c | 881.08$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.34 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 30c | 799.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…a151backed No | 7c | 377.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…a58ebacked No | 8c | 361.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d90…feb5backed No | 10c | 355.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 6c | 296$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…a9efbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 65c | 191.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 71c | 158.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 74c | 155.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…be09backed Yes | 25c | 150.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…350ebacked Yes | 17c | 139.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +505.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…5152backed Yes | 40c | 131.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…73d2backed No | 19c | 105.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 60c | 93.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 92.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…0a9bbacked Yes | 37c | 91.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked No | 77c | 84.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08c…318abacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 79c | 50.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.