Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278c089fc5c839bf03c225877f5d76d294bbfabeee3d5ff61a01bd971c27e899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,927 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e7c…086cbacked Up | 57c | 2,510$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…37bcbacked Down | 43c | 2,510$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Down | 12c | 587.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Down | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…021bbacked Up | 75c | 89.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…d67bbacked Up | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…2817backed Up | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 17c | 69.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Up | 71c | 56.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…0c77backed Down | 28c | 54.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Up | 70c | 51.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…6162backed Down | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…c9d9backed Down | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Up | 66c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed Up | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc43…1c86backed Up | 76c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…4b05backed Up | 66c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.