Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab50ec55b7991f0680b5ecb4a63f2796e12951259d818cc5f4a55cb4f7080b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,625$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 1,956$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 5c | 775.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 14c | 765.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 697.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 15c | 668.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 667$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…4cf5backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 11c | 573.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 10c | 571.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 3c | 463$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 2c | 456$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 8c | 415.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 334.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 6c | 324$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 267.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 263.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 260.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…e12abacked Yes | 24c | 208.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…462dbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 17c | 149.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed2…cc5dbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 13c | 111.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecc…3739backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…85e6backed Yes | 10c | 104.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…3dc5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…54eabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 14c | 98.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa82…15d5backed Yes | 13c | 87.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 13c | 78.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…833abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…7470backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.