Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $100–$110 on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40cb2e7dcd8929a5c086a534e4a97ee04479555b2ddbf2861cfa4ad266cc0bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,425$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 5c | 3,510$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed Yes | 0c | 3,496$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 5c | 2,033$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b82…6a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,421$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,171$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 878.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 721.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…afebbacked Yes | 5c | 712.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4551backed Yes | 4c | 685.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…a117backed Yes | 4c | 684.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 2c | 542.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa3…60b9backed Yes | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…4d7fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6fa8backed Yes | 6c | 335.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…7cf8backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…3fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed Yes | 4c | 247$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $100–$110 on April 8?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $110+ on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $70–$80 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at <$70 on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.