Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c335fdcae195ba4a8e4db08aafdbe9390f40715ece467c5d49704c1c83c090e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,877$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…229cbacked Yes | 22c | 3,030$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb578…0ddcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,913$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…6032backed Yes | 1c | 2,558$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2cdfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,542$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 13c | 1,311$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…ed8bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,263$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 9c | 1,101$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…cceebacked Yes | 17c | 969.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1257…a9acbacked Yes | 5c | 939.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 903.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…b84fbacked Yes | 13c | 874.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…ff64backed Yes | 9c | 701.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 14c | 442.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6fa8backed Yes | 15c | 433.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa3…60b9backed Yes | 6c | 423.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 21c | 339.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 190.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed Yes | 15c | 185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 8c | 183.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…10c0backed Yes | 15c | 166.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 132.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 115.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…0f5dbacked Yes | 23c | 78.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 33c | 42.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $100–$110 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $110+ on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $70–$80 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at <$70 on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.