Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a738fbbd27291edf49d678f878e72c431173f71a212175777f21b7cb66d203a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5925…b194backed No | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed No | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked No | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked No | 15c | 689.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 19c | 262.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 16c | 153.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…04f6backed Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6fa8backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 15c | 115.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…0eb2backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…c456backed No | 25c | 84.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 70.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked No | 16c | 66.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $100–$110 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $110+ on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $70–$80 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil settle at <$70 on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.